In a scathing report titled "The Economic Legacy of the Buhari Administration," BudgIT expressed deep concern over the eight-year rule of outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari.
The organization lamented that his tenure had led the country into high debt, increased inflation, and sluggish growth.
According to the report, between 2016 and 2022, the Buhari government generated total revenues of N26.67tn but expended N60.64tn, resulting in a deficit of N33.97tn. To bridge this gap, domestic debt skyrocketed from N8.84tn in December 2015 to N44.91tn by June 2023, while external debt rose from $7.35bn to $37.2bn over the same period. Additionally, the Central Bank's support added up to N25tn. Overall, President Buhari's administration elevated Nigeria's debt profile from N42tn to N77tn, resulting in a significant burden on debt servicing, which escalated from N1.06tn in 2015 to N5.24tn in 2022. During this period, the debt-service-to-revenue ratio surged from 29% to 96%.
BudgIT also criticized the Central Bank's monetary policies under President Buhari, which contributed to the hardships faced by the populace. The report highlighted that the money supply had surged from N18tn in 2015 to N55tn in 2023, as the Central Bank exceeded its monetary policy remit and took on a larger role in fiscal policy. However, this approach failed to achieve price stability, as inflation rose to 22.5% and food inflation soared to 24% by April 2023. Despite the Central Bank's Anchor Borrowers' Program, which expended over N800bn, food inflation continued to escalate, indicating repayment challenges.
The report further addressed the issue of unemployment, stating that it surged from 10.4% in 2015 to 33.4% in 2020 during President Buhari's tenure. The mismanagement of the exchange rate, with a significant disparity between official and parallel market rates, hindered business growth.
Moreover, BudgIT criticized the administration's handling of fuel subsidy removal, which incurred at least N10tn in expenses. Despite the opportunity to benefit from soaring oil prices, reaching $114 per barrel in April 2022, the government failed to act decisively and continued wasteful ventures. Nigeria's oil production declined below one million barrels per day while other oil-based economies enjoyed unprecedented prosperity. Consequently, the non-oil share of public revenues increased from 44.6% in 2015 to 59.4% in 2022. However, BudgIT's analyses revealed that Nigeria's budget underperformed, with agencies misusing public funds and impeding any chances of fiscal consolidation.